Snapshot-aligned analysis of contract velocity, price cuts, and segment splits across nine Middle Tennessee counties — published in the data.
Greater Nashville signed 40 fewer contracts than the same week last year, the first meaningful decline since February. The June 10 post predicted the negative number. The bigger news: this week is also 8% below 2024 and 5% below 2023, and the entire gap is in new construction and resale under $500K.
Read the briefing →Greater Nashville REALTORS reported a record June median of $537K, but Zillow's home-value index for the same market is flat to slightly down. Both are true, and the gap is a mix shift: what's selling has moved upmarket while the value of a given home went sideways.
Realtor.com says the median asking price fell 2.5% nationally. Nashville's under-$300K tier shows what that number can hide: listings are up 26% YoY, but only 1 in 4 is a detached house, and house sales in the tier are down 87% since 2020.
Nashville and Austin boomed alike into 2022, then split: Nashville sits 1.9% below its peak while Austin is 26.1% below. The Zillow data, a look at property taxes, and the open questions about why.
New construction's share of Greater Nashville home sales fell to 24.9%, a seven-year low. A walk through the evidence, chart by chart, on what happened, with the why left for you to weigh.
The $4M+ market is setting records on both sides of the ledger: closings +45% YTD on top of a record 2025, while active luxury inventory hit an all-time high of 260 and one in four sellers is cutting price.
Metro contract growth swung from +12.7% to +2.9% — but measured against 2024 and 2023, the surge and the fade both disappear. The 2025 base bottomed the week of Liberation Day. The real signals: Davidson, Sumner's pipeline, and the $750K–$1M band.
Four weeks ago the $500K–$1M move-up market was one of Nashville's fastest-growing tiers (+19.5% YoY single-family contracts). This week it's negative (-1.7%), while both the entry level and $2M+ keep booming — the soft spot climbed the ladder.
Greater Nashville's single-family median hit a record $538,000 this week — but price per square foot is up just 0.8%, and condos are doing the opposite (median down 6.7% in Davidson). The record is mix and size, not appreciation.
Non-owner-occupied short-term-rental permits are capped across most of Davidson County. That scarcity hasn't saved the resale market: ~186 active listings, about 8 going under contract a month, a third carrying price cuts, the median sold price down 29% since 2023 — and a third of this year's resales now selling at a loss.
Of 992 Airbnb-tagged Davidson listings since 2023, only 34% sold on the MLS and just 6% slipped out off-market. The investor short-term-rental glut isn't being liquidated — it's being held.
Greater Nashville new-construction closings flipped to +9.4% YoY as April's pending surge reached the closing table — but the year is still 5.8% behind 2025, and the pipeline that drove the rebound has already cooled.
Total active inventory in Greater Nashville is up 8.6% YoY, but the entire increase came from existing-home sellers. New construction is flat-to-shrinking while builder demand grows twice as fast.
SFH $300K–$500K contracts flipped −18 vs 2025 this week — the only band of six that turned negative. Inside the band, all the weakness is on the existing-resale side.
Greater Nashville condo supply hit 5.2 months — buyer's-market territory. Median condo prices down 6.4% YoY. Three closed sales show six-figure losses on properties bought 2022-2023.
The 35% price-cut threshold just got crossed in mid-May — second year in a row, and five weeks earlier than 2024. The seasonal calendar of seller discounting has migrated forward five months in three years.
Pendings are up 17.5% YoY. But closings are still down 9% YTD. The gap will close — or won't — by August.
Contract volume is up 11.3% YoY — the headline read on demand. Look one layer deeper and nothing about it is boring: the very top of the market is decoupling, demand is migrating north, builders are sitting out the rebound, and the cut rate has structurally re-rated. Five threads, none of them resolve cleanly in this week's data.
The Data Just Did a Complete 180
Are Luxury Home Values Falling?
First Trajectory Shift of the Year
Conventional wisdom has created a gap in the housing market
Tennessee Home Values are Up 4% Since Peak Pricing in 2022
Zillow Home Values Down ~1.7% since 2022
Record Price for October as Transactions Remain Low
Seller motivation in Nashville is high (41% of listings have price cuts). Listings are up 20%, but median price is misleadingly high due to luxury sales. Buyers have the upper hand in most areas.
Price Cuts hit new High
Nashville's multifamily rents drop 4% since 2022 due to oversupply from a 2020-2021 building boom, despite strong demand. Condo conversions flood the market; single-family rents still rising.
Nashville's Rents Continue their Multi-Year Decline
But Price Cuts Tell a Better Story
But Price Cuts Tell a Better Story
Nashville's High Rise Condo market is taking a beating. Dropping 15% in 18 months due to luxury apartments pivoting to condos.
A few years ago, I became deeply suspicious of the real estate landscape in Nashville. Interest rates were rising and companies were pulling back on their investments. Amazon, which had committed...
Despite an increased inventory and nearly 30% lower demand compared to pre-pandemic levels, Nashville's median single-family home prices hit record highs in May 2025. Median sales prices...
I was talking to a broker yesterday, and he said, “It’s SO SLOW.”I thought, It does feel slower—but why? After all, demand is flat compared...
I was talking to a broker yesterday, and he said, “It’s SO SLOW.”
New Builds Struggling to Compete with Resale Inventory
Shocking changes in two weeks
Nashville Housing Update
The Most Obvious Surprise Yet
What is happening?
Median Price hits $490K for October
Check out my Free National Interactive Map Tool based on Realtor.com Data
I did a deep dive on Detainer Warrants filed in Davidson County
The More I Dig The Worse It Looks