Nashville gained +1,356 net movers in the first quarter of 2026, per Redfin's origin-destination migration data. That is still positive, and it has been positive in every quarter of the data, but it is 72% below the peak of +4,827 in late 2021. The bigger surprise is inside the state: Knoxville now draws roughly twice Nashville's net migration, and Knoxville's single biggest source of net movers is Nashville itself.
This post covers three views of the same dataset: where Nashville's movers come from and go, how the four Tennessee metros compare, and how much Nashville feeds the rest of the state.
1. Los Angeles sends Nashville more movers than any other metro, a 6th straight year
Nashville's inflow list has barely changed in five years. Los Angeles is the top net sender at +881 in 2026 Q1, followed by Chicago (+345), Seattle (+326), and Washington DC (+264). Los Angeles has been Nashville's number one source, by both gross and net movers, in every calendar year from 2021 through 2025, and it leads 2026 so far. That makes six straight years. Chicago took the top spot in two individual quarters (2024 Q4 and 2025 Q1) but has never held it for a full year.
The outflow side looks completely different: it is in-state and Gulf Coast. Nashville's biggest net losses in 2026 Q1 were to Knoxville (-448), Clarksville (-130), and Chattanooga (-116), with smaller drains to Tullahoma, Johnson City, and Crestview, FL.
The trend line explains the 72% decline. Net migration peaked at +4,827 in the window covering 2021 Q4, fell steadily to a low of +345 in the spring 2025 window, and has since recovered to +1,356. The recovery is mostly fewer people leaving: since the spring 2025 low, quarterly outflow fell from 6,355 to 4,819 movers while inflow slipped from 6,700 to 6,174.
2. Knoxville leads Tennessee metros in net migration, every quarter since 2022
Redfin's export covers the 100 largest CSAs, which includes four Tennessee metros: Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and Memphis. On one shared scale, Knoxville leads at +2,608 net movers in 2026 Q1, roughly double Nashville's +1,356, with Chattanooga at +1,273 and Memphis at +225.
The lead is not new. Knoxville has posted the highest net migration of the four in every rolling window since December 2021, 50 straight readings. Nashville last held the state lead in the window beginning November 2021.
All four metros peaked within a nine-month span (late 2021 to mid 2022) and all four are down since. Chattanooga has held onto the most of its peak (+1,273 now vs +1,755 then, 73%), Knoxville about half (53%), Nashville 28%, and Memphis 14%. Memphis is also the only one of the four that was losing movers in early 2021.
3. Tennessee gained +10,191 net movers statewide, and the losses are all to nearby states
Redfin also publishes the same data at the state level. Tennessee gained +10,191 net movers in 2026 Q1. The top sender states look like Nashville's own inflow list: California (+3,521), Illinois (+1,236), Washington (+1,023), Georgia (+669), then New York and Virginia (+546 each). The only states that drew more than 50 net movers out of Tennessee are five nearby Southern states: Mississippi (-201), Alabama (-149), Kentucky (-97), South Carolina (-91), and North Carolina (-64).
Inside the state, Nashville lost net movers to each of the other three metros: -448 to Knoxville, -116 to Chattanooga, and -18 to Memphis. Knoxville's top net source is Nashville (+448), ahead of Chicago (+364) and Los Angeles (+232). Chattanooga's top source is Atlanta (+377). Memphis's is Los Angeles (+126).
So the pattern splits by metro: Nashville and Memphis pull hardest from big out-of-state metros, while Knoxville's biggest feeder is in-state, and Chattanooga's is Atlanta, three hours down I-75. Note the two files measure different footprints (CSAs cross state lines), so the metro numbers and the state numbers do not sum to each other.
What this adds up to
- Nashville still gains movers every quarter, at roughly a quarter of the 2021 pace: +1,356 in 2026 Q1 vs +4,827 at peak.
- The inflow list is stable (Los Angeles, Chicago, Seattle, DC). The net outflows are in-state and Gulf Coast, led by Knoxville at -448.
- Knoxville leads all four Tennessee metros and has for 50 straight readings, and its top source of net movers is Nashville.
- Statewide, Tennessee gained +10,191 net movers; California sent the most (+3,521), and the only meaningful losses were to five nearby Southern states.
- Nashville's 2026 recovery comes from fewer people leaving (outflow down 24% since spring 2025) while inflow is roughly flat.
For agents and sellers, the practical read is that relocation demand into Nashville is steady but much thinner than the 2021-22 wave, and part of the buyer pool that would have stayed local is now shopping Knoxville and Chattanooga. For anyone tracking the metro's growth story, the in-state outflow is the number to watch, since it is the piece that turned Nashville's slowdown into Knoxville's lead.
Two things to watch over the next two quarters: whether Nashville's net migration holds above +1,000 (it has for six straight windows), and whether the Nashville-to-Knoxville net flow narrows from 448. If both hold, the recovery is real; if the Knoxville flow widens while Nashville's net slips, the in-state shift is still accelerating.
Data: Redfin migration origin-destination pairs, CSA and state level, rolling 3-month windows, 2021 Q1 through 2026 Q1 (last updated by Redfin 2026-06-15). Metro names refer to CSAs. Counts are Redfin.com user moves, a sample of all movers, so levels understate total migration; use them for direction and ranking. Source: Redfin.