Nashville New Builds Dropping Prices

Originally published on Substack

Happy Monday,

Here’s the latest Nashville Real Estate update! We’ll dive into recent price drops in the area, new construction “fire sales,” and why rising mortgage rates may shape the housing market in early 2025. If you’re planning to buy or sell in the Nashville area—or even just watching the market—read on for key insights and tips.

1. Multiple Price Drops: What Does It Mean?

Every morning, I run a Python script to comb through all active listings and flag properties that have lowered their price at least twice—not just once. This is how I found some of the carnage going on in new builds, I spotted numerous second-time price reductions, a clear sign that certain sellers are increasingly motivated.

• Double Price Cuts in December = Very Motivated Sellers → LOWBALL

Takeaway

If you’re looking to low ball someone this season, the double price cuts is a great place to start. I have the current list from the last week (Paid Links Below)

2. Mortgage Rates & The Inflation Factor

Jerome Powell’s recent comments confirm what many experts suspected:

They have no idea where inflation is going!

And because mortgage rates depend so heavily on inflation, we’ve seen rates bump up to a new high (not seen since mid-2024).

What to Watch

• Mortgage rates, year-over-year: This is the single most important chart to watch in 2025.

• When rates go year-over-year positive (higher than they were the same time a year prior), buyer demand tends to slow.

• If rates remain high into Q1 2025, anticipate a softer market and climbing inventory.

3. Davidson County: A Powder Keg of Inventory

One area that really stands out? Davidson County.

• Active listings are up 24% year-over-year.

• Contract volume (homes going under contract) is down about ~20-30% from historic levels.

This signals more supply and less demand—a classic recipe for price softness. So if you’re buying in Davidson, now is the time to start looking for deals. If you’re selling, it’s pretty rough out there in a lot of areas/price points. Take your time, don’t price too aggressively, and don’t be offended when you get low offers, it’s better than not hearing anything.

4. Spotlight on New Builds: Deep Discounts

Builders often have tight timelines to move inventory. Right now, many are dropping prices aggressively. A few examples:

1. Harbor Crossing (Gallatin):

   • Townhouses once selling for $350-360Ks now closing closer to $300K.

     

2. Hartmann Crossing (Lebanon):

   • Median prices peaked in Q2 2024.

   • Now, similar floorplans have dropped from $460K to $414K, or even lower.

     

3. Harvest Point (Maury County):

   • A wave of price cuts (from $200+ per square foot down toward the $180s).

   • Plenty of active listings, with many still under construction.

     

Why It Matters

When builders reduce prices, it can pull existing-home prices in the same neighborhood downward too. In many of these subdivisions, we’re seeing the tops get lower and the lows keep dropping—a telltale sign the market is under pressure.

5. Buyer’s vs. Seller’s Markets

One tool I love is my Neighborhood Tracker (Coming Soon)—red for seller’s markets, green for buyer’s markets. Across the metro area, an increasing number of neighborhoods are tipping from red to green, signaling stronger buyer advantage:

• Buyer’s Market: Expect more negotiating power and potentially secure a home well under list price.

• Seller’s Market: Historically characterized by multiple offers, shorter days on market, and fewer price reductions.

Strategy

• Buy in the green (while it’s a buyer’s market) and sell in the red (when it’s a seller’s market).

• Make sure the monthly payment is affordable, and focus on areas with long-term desirability

• Notice that in every county there are buyers and sellers markets. Things can be tight even in Davidson County where inventory has exploded. Real Estate is hyper local.

  

6. Looking Ahead to 2025

• More Inventory: If mortgage rates remain high, expect a surge of spring listings combined with fewer buyers, further nudging the market into oversupply.

• Sellers Holding Out? The big question is how long sellers can wait. If they capitulate in large numbers, expect steeper discounts.

• Opportunities Abound: For buyers—especially those who can assume loans (like VA assumptions)—this could be a prime time to snag a property at a discount and still get a great rate.

Final Thoughts

No one has a crystal ball for 2025, but with recent mortgage rates increasing, the data points to a market where many neighborhoods are under price pressure, especially in Davidson County where inventory continues to accumulate. If you’re planning to buy, do your homework, run the numbers, and don’t be afraid to negotiate. Sellers, it’s more critical than ever to price strategically and present a quality product buyers will compete for.

In the meantime, enjoy the holiday season with your friends and family.

Merry Christmas!

If you have questions about a specific neighborhood, price range, or strategy—or you just want some real-time data—feel free to reach out. I’m here to help you navigate the Nashville market as we head into 2025.

Paid Links Below: Double Price Cuts, Assumable Listings from Low Rate 2020-2021

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